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#496 Optimism & The NBA

Martin Seligman is an optimism guru (see other Big Ideas on Optimism). He took his theories to the sports arena and found some fascinating results.

His question: Could a sports team be optimistic or pessimistic? How would this affect its performance?

His study: He focused on the Atlantic Division of the NBA. Holding other variables constant, his research team scientifically analyzed quotes from players and coaches to measure their level of optimism or pessimism following either a win or a loss.

His findings: Teams, and not just individuals, have a meaningful and measurable explanatory style. Following a loss, an optimistic team was much more likely to beat the spread. A team's explanatory style for bad events strongly predicts how they do against a point spread after a loss in the next season.

In his study, the Celtics were the quintessential optimists–always explaining away a bad loss as temporary, specific, and not their fault. They were an uncanny comeback team. Language they used: “They were making good, quick cuts to the basket.” And, “That's the best I've ever seen a team run.”

The Nets, on the other hand, were mentally shipwrecked. They explained losses as permanent, pervasive, and their own fault: “We botched up things ourselves and blew all our opportunities.” And, “This is one of the physically weakest teams I've ever coached.”

Tip: Don’t bet against an optimistic team that just lost!!

Oh! And get your optimism on. :)